Trump Faces Historic Midterm Polling Collapse as 82% Disapprove on Cost of Living

With the November 3 midterms approaching, Donald Trump is confronting some of the most striking polling numbers of his presidency. Public frustration over the cost of living and the continuing war with Iran has pushed several measures of his performance to extraordinary lows, creating a difficult political environment for the President and Republicans defending their congressional majorities.

The most dramatic figure comes from an AP-NORC poll showing that 82% of U.S. adults disapprove of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, while only 17% approve. Such overwhelming dissatisfaction with a president’s performance on a major domestic issue represents an unusually lopsided result as voters prepare to return to the polls.

Trump has rejected the increasingly negative polling. When TIME told him his numbers had never been lower, he responded: «They’re fake numbers. I would beat anybody running today by 20 points. Your numbers that you have are fake. The pollsters are corrupt. They’re almost as corrupt as the writers.» His rejection contrasts sharply with multiple national surveys.

The AP-NORC survey found that 65% of Americans believe Trump’s policies are responsible for higher-than-usual prices, while 69% said his handling of the cost of living has been worse than expected. Economic pessimism extends further, with 73% disapproving of his handling of the economy and the same percentage saying America is moving in the wrong direction.

Affordability concerns are also penetrating Trump’s own political base. According to AP-NORC, 52% of Republicans said his handling of the cost of living has been worse than they expected. Republicans remain more likely than other Americans to blame elevated prices on factors beyond Trump’s control, but the findings nevertheless reveal significant dissatisfaction within his own party.

The economy is not Trump’s only source of public dissatisfaction. After seven months of war with Iran, AP-NORC found that 71% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the country, while 69% believe the conflict has not been worth fighting. Those numbers add another major issue to the political pressures confronting the administration before November.

Other national polling has reinforced the broader picture. A September CNN/SSRS survey placed Trump’s overall approval at 33% against 67% disapproval, his lowest overall rating across either presidential term in CNN polling. Only 27% approved of his handling of the economy, while his approval rating specifically on inflation fell even further, reaching just 20%.

CNN’s survey also found that 49% of registered voters supported the Democratic candidate in their congressional district, compared with 41% supporting the Republican. Generic ballot polling does not determine individual House or Senate races, but the numbers illustrate the national political environment facing Republican candidates as voters prepare to decide control of Congress on November 3.

Trump’s standing is unusually low compared with several recent presidents approaching their first midterm elections. Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2010, Trump himself in 2018 and Joe Biden in 2022 all recorded higher approval at comparable stages, placing his current numbers in rare territory in modern presidential polling.

Other presidents have nevertheless experienced severe midterm difficulties. Harry Truman entered the 1946 elections below 40% approval amid postwar economic problems, while George W. Bush faced widespread dissatisfaction in 2006 during the Iraq War. Their parties subsequently suffered major congressional losses, although those historical outcomes cannot determine how Americans will vote in the very different circumstances of 2026.

Trump continues to reject the picture presented by national surveys. Asked whether his own pollsters were reporting similar numbers, he told TIME: «I heard John McLaughlin told me they are much higher than the numbers.» Trump then argued that America has «the strongest economy» and «the strongest industrial economy», creating a sharp contrast with widespread public dissatisfaction over affordability.