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Donald Trump has announced that he is willing to slap Canada with a 50% tariff on planes sold to the U.S. by Canadian manufacturers, namely Bombardier. Trump claimed that Canada was refusing to certify a slew of Gulfstream aircraft, and in return, Trump would decertify their Bombardier Global Expresses and all aircraft made in Canada. Trump claimed he would enact the tariffs until Canada recertifies the airplanes. After Trump's announcement, Bombardier's stock crashed by nearly 10%, sending the company into shock.
Truth Social post
According to Trump's social media post, Canada has refused to certify the Gulfstream 500, 600, 700, and 800 Jets for sale in Canada – a line of private business jets. The G700 and G800 are new jets from Gulfstream, with the G800 only starting sales in 2021. Trump's post is the only proof that Canada has not certified these jets. There has been no formal statement from the Canadian transportation ministry, nor from Bombardier and Gulfstream. U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy reposted an image of the post on Twitter, but only added an American flag and two plane emojis.
Consequences of decertification
Decertification of an aircraft by a national regulator like the FAA would make it unable to legally fly in that country. In this case, if the FAA deregulates Canadian-made aircraft, they would be unable to fly in the U.S. There are currently thousands of Canadian-made aircraft flying in the U.S. Bombardier Challenger series of aircraft are heavily used in the U.S., and the Airbus A220 is used regularly by Delta and JetBlue. There are also hundreds of Bombardier's LearJet series being used as personal aircraft in the U.S. – jets that will also be at risk of being decertified.
When the stock market opened on January 30, Bombardier's stock price had dropped 5%. Over the course of the day, it dropped all the way to 9% before seeing a bounce-back before markets closed, closing with a 6% difference from its opening price. Bombardier's 6% dip represents a possible $1bn USD in losses. Bombardier reported just under $9bn USD revenues in 2024. The company is worth an estimated $22bn USD.
Impact on America
If all Canadian-made aircraft are decertified, multiple American airline chains would suffer. Both JetBlue and Delta Airways heavily rely on Bombardier aircraft for National flights. The White House made a comment to Reuters on January 30, claiming that the decertification would not affect aircraft currently in use, but it's unclear how the FAA would decertify planes for sale that are currently in use. In order to decertify the aircraft, there would need to be a reason cited (past political maneuvering) to deem them unsafe. Aircraft and aerospace parts have largely escaped the brunt of Trump's U.S.-led trade war, with Canadian-made planes continuing to be exported south of the border.
Comments from Canada
The Canadian Ministry of Transportation did not explicitly say how they planned on handling the situation; most likely, they were waiting for Trump's tantrum to end before attempting negotiations. Canadian Minister of Transport Steve MacKinnon made a post on Twitter stating that he has been in contact with Bombardier's CEO and senior leaders at General Dynamics, which owns Gulfstream. According to MacKinnon, the government of Canada will be staying in close contact with both Bombardier and Gulfstream.
Mark Carney made comments on January 25, encouraging global leaders to pull away from U.S. pressures. This came after Donald Trump threatened Canada with more tariffs if Canada refused to enter into a trade deal with China. Carney has refused to enter into the trade agreement, stating that Canada would not enter into an agreement of the sort with China or any other nonmarket economy. Carney has inked multiple deals with China over the last two months, a project that he says is attempting to rectify some of the issues the two nations have developed over the last few years.
